Demographic information and demand forecasting

Coventry City Council is ranked the 54th most deprived local authority of 317 in England.

Coventry’s population is growing, changing and increasingly diverse. In the past ten years, Coventry’s population has grown by a fifth, making it the second-fastest growing local authority outside of London. In 2016-17, its growth rate was the seventh highest.

Coventry is a diverse and cohesive city with a relatively young population, in 2021, just over one-fifth (22%) of the city’s population were children and young people aged under 18, and the city had a median age of 32 years compared to the UK average of 40 years. In recent years, the city has experienced an 8.9% growth in its population, from 316,915 in 2011 to 345,300 residents on Census Day 2021. This is higher than the rate in the West Midlands (6.2%) or England (6.6%).

The city’s growth is a consequence of international migration as well as births. As a result, the city is becoming increasingly diverse. In the 2011 census, 33% of the population identified as people of Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) background, compared to 22% in 2001. It is likely that the population has become even more diverse in recent years since 2011.

According to the latest school census, 52% of Coventry’s school children are from a BME background, up from 38% in 2011. The biggest population growth in school children is seen in Black African, Asian Other and White Other groups.

Coventry CLA and care leavers snapshot as of 31 March 2023

On 31st March 2023 there were 724 Children Looked After (CLA). The profile of our CLA is based on those in care at the end of March 2023. 724 CLA represents 1% of the Coventry child population. Naturally the number of Looked After Children fluctuates, rising and falling across the year.

Table 2 shows the rate of children looked after per 10,000 children aged under 18 years on 31 March for the last 5 years. On 31 March 2023, the rate of Looked After Children was 89.6 per 10,000 children aged under 18 years and is similar to 2019. The fluctuations in numbers over the last 5 years, with increased numbers post-Covid reflects a similar pattern to national, statistical neighbour and West Midlands rates.

Rate of children looked as of 31 March per 10,000 children aged under 18 years

Location

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

2022-23

Coventry

89.0

88.0

92.0

94.0

89.6

England

65.0

67.0

67.0

70.0

N/A

Statistical Neighbours

88.4

89.7

87.7

89.2

N/A

West Midlands

82.0

82.0

85.0

88.0

N/A

Overall available data shows in March 2022 94 per 10,000 was higher than England as a whole at 70 per 10,000 and 89.2 and 88 for Statistical Neighbours and the West Midlands respectively. Coventry’s rate had dropped in the March 2023 figures but national and statistical neighbour comparators are not yet available.

Fluctuations in numbers of CLA, particularly recently can, in part, be attributed to the cost-of-living crisis, impact of Covid pandemic and an increase in Unaccompanied Asylum-Seeking Children amongst other factors.

The chart below gives a detailed breakdown of the type of provision where CLA were placed on 31 March for the previous 5 years.

Coventry Looked After Children as of 31 March by placement
Placement

2018/19
Count
%

2019/20
Count
%

2020/21
Count
%

2021/22
Count
%

2022/23
Count
%

Foster placements

497

71%

508

72%

543

73%

534

74%

506

70%

Placed for adoption

22

3%

C

C

26

3%

15

2%

19

2%

Placement with parents

48

7%

42

6%

40

5%

39

5%

48

6%

Secure units

C

C

C

C

C

C

0

0%

0

0%

Children's homes

61

9%

57

8%

78

10%

76

11%

71

10%

Supported accommodation

61

9%

56

8%

48

6%

53

7%

78

11%

Other residential settings

12

2%

C

C

9

1

C

C

C

C

Residential schools

0

0%

C

C

C

C

0

0%

0

0%

Other placement

0

0%

0

0%

0

0%

C

C

0

0%

All children looked after

703

100%

701

100%

747

100%

723

100%

730

100%

Total in placement (excl. UASC)

666

95%

679

97%

729

98%

683

94%

659

90%

Total children in placement (UASC)

37

5%

22

3%

18

2%

40

6%

71

10%

The figures show the majority of CLA are placed in foster care.

Coventry is looking for providers of both residential care and fostering, who will work with foster carers to support young people to step across or step down from residential care and provide support to both the child and the carers to make a successful move. On occasion there can be an inappropriate demand on Residential places where there is shortfall in Fostering sufficiency.

Whilst this period has seen fluctuations in the number of CLA in all age groups, the proportions of children in each placement type have not changed significantly. Similar to national trends and statistical partners, there are high numbers of adolescents amongst Coventry’s CLA population and a changing number of Unaccompanied Asylum-Seeking Children (UASC).

 

Age and gender of Looked After Children as of 31 March

Age/Gender

2018/19
Count
%
2019/20
Count
​​​​​​​%
2020/21
Count
​​​​​​​%

2021/22
Count
​​​​​​​%

2022/23
Count
​​​​​​​%

Age: Under 1

45

6%

34

5%

52

7%

48

7%

39

5%

Age: 1 to 4

111

16%

114

16%

134

18%

123

17%

132

18%

Age: 5 to 9

127

18%

128

18%

130

17%

126

17%

121

17%

Age: 10 to 15

249

35%

262

37%

277

37%

267

37%

241

33%

Age: 16 and over

171

24%

163

23%

154

21%

159

22%

191

26%

Male

399

57%

389

55%

404

54%

418

58%

422

60%

Female

304

43%

312

45%

343

46%

305

42%

291

40%

All LAC 31 March

703

100%

701

100%

747

100%

723

100%

735

100%

Young people aged 10-15 made up 33% of all CLA on 31 March 2023 which is a decrease of 4% from March 2022. While the number aged 16 and over has increased from 22% from March 2022 to 26% on 31 March 2023, this is in large part due to the increase in UASC of that age.

The overall ratio of girls to boys among Coventry’s CLA in March 2023 is 40% female and 60% male (similar to national averages). For more information on our local context please see the Coventry Joint Strategic Needs Assessment (JSNA) Coventry JSNA.

The ethnic profile of CLA over the last 5 years to 31 March 2023 is relatively unchanged, though numbers of White children have been falling since 2020/21 whilst numbers of Asian or Asian British have increased over the 5 year period.

Ethnicity of Looked After Children as of 31 March
Ethnicity 2018/19
Count
​​​​​​​%
2019/20
Count
​​​​​​​%
2020/21
Count
​​​​​​​%
2021/22
Count
​​​​​​​%
2022/23
Count
​​​​​​​%

White

465

66%

481

69%

514

69%

489

68%

473

65%

Mixed Heritage

120

17%

112

16%

132

18%

114

16%

108

15%

Asian or Asian British

35

5%

31

4%

33

4%

46

6%

57

8%

Black or Black British

63

9%

56

8%

48

6%

52

7%

56

8%

Other ethnic groups

c

c

c

c

c

c

16

2%

23

3%

Other

c

c

c

c

c

c

6

1%

7

1%

As of 31 March 2023, White children are still over-represented but have reduced from 68% to 65% of the CLA population, followed by Mixed Heritage (15%), Asian or Asian British (8%) and Black or Black British (8%) with 3% Other Ethnic Groups and 1% Other.

Coventry’s trend is like that of statistical neighbours. However, whilst Asian or Asian British and Black or Black British are not disproportionately represented compared to the Coventry population as a whole, 16% of CLA are Mixed Race, compared to the Coventry population where Mixed Race accounts for 10%.

Ethnicity of cla at march 2023

Numbers of Coventry CLA with a statement of SEN or an Education, Health and Care Plan (EHCP) and those with SEN have risen since 2018/19, which is broadly similar to Statistical Neighbours and nationally. With disruption to schools during the Covid pandemic and lockdown, there is not an effective data set for 2021/22 and data is not available for 2022/23 but numbers are likely to have risen alongside increased numbers in the general population.

Looked After Children as of 31 March with a statement or EHCP and with SEN
Child 2018/19
Count
​​​​​​​%
2019/20
Count
​​​​​​​%
2020/21
​​​​​​​Count
​​​​​​​%

CLA with a statement or EHCP

80

25%

97

27%

98

28%

CLA with SEN

171

53%

193

54%

199

56%

Autistic Spectrum Conditions (ASC) are a specific area of need. Assessments for ASC are an issue for all children and young people in Coventry, not just for CLA. With children and young people having to wait longer for an assessment, there may be hidden need linked to ASC, especially for those who are not presenting with assessed Learning Disabilities who would be receiving wider support.