Prioritisation of risks
Prioritisation of Risks
The Pathway Group assessed the exposure and sensitivity for each of those 40 areas of concern out of the 61 risks detailed in the ‘Third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment’ (CCRA3) document were identified as being relevant to Coventry. Each of these 40 potential risks for Coventry was subjected to an assessment by the Pathway Group members from a series of workshops, interviews and meetings.
The members of the Group with the support of CAG, Sustainability West Midlands and Slingshot Solutions were required to review risks and identify the level of resources, skills and abilities, organisational and management capacity to address each of the identified potential risks from which they calculated a vulnerability score for each.
From this larger list, 24 were considered as either a high or medium priority for action, with some details for those risks that need further consideration over the coming years.
The Pathway Group considered 1 or more actions to address each of the high and medium priority risks. Some risks need a number of specific practical actions, whilst others may require further research.
The following 11 risks were considered to be of a high priority:
| Risk and Opportunity Descriptor | Exposure Score | Sensitivity Score | Adaptive Capacity Score | Vulnerability Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| H 9 - Risks to food safety and food security | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| I 1 - Risks to infrastructure networks (water, energy, transport, ICT) from cascading failures | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| I 2 – Risks to infrastructure services from river, surface water and groundwater flooding | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| I 8 - Risks to public water supplies from reduced water availability | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| H 1 - Risks to health and wellbeing from high temperatures | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| H 3 - Risks to people, communities and buildings from flooding | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| H 7 - Risks to health and wellbeing from changes in air quality | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| H 10 - Risks to water quality and household water supplies | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| H 12 - Risks to health and social care delivery | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| H 13 - Risks to education and prison services | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| B 1 - Risks to businesses from flooding | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
And the following 13 risks were considered a medium priority:
| Risk Theme | Risk and Opportunity Descriptor | Exposure Score | Sensitivity Score | Adaptive Capacity Score | Vulnerability Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business and Industry | B 5 - Risks to business from reduced employee productivity due to infrastructure disruption and higher temperatures in working environments | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Health, Communities and the Built Environment | H 5 - Risks to building fabric | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| H 6 - Risks and opportunities from summer and winter household energy demand | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| H 8 - Risks to health from vector-borne disease | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Infrastructure | I 4 - Risks to bridges and pipelines from flooding and erosion | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| I 5 - Risks to transport networks from slope and embankment failure | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| I 10 - Risks to energy from high and low temperatures, high winds, lightning | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| I 12 - Risks to transport from high and low temperatures, high winds, lightning | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| I 13 – Risks to IT from high and low temperatures, high winds, lightning | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Natural Environment and Assets | N 4 - Risk to soils from changing climatic conditions, including seasonal aridity and wetness | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| N 11 - Risks to freshwater species and habitats from changing climatic conditions and extreme events, including higher water temperatures, flooding, water scarcity and phenological shifts | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| N 12 - Risks to freshwater species and habitats from pests, pathogens and invasive species | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| N 18 - Risks and opportunities from climate change to landscape character | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Which neighbourhoods are most likely to be affected
The map shows that 46 out of Coventry’s 195 Local Super Output Areas (LSOAs) overall Climate Risk Vulnerability Assessment score places them in the highest climate risk and vulnerability category in the region. This amounts to 24% of LSOAs in the city.
The majority of these LSOAs are concentrated in the following wards: Longford, Foleshill, Radford, Upper Stoke, Lower Stoke and Sherbourne. Together, the population of these wards account for 37% of Coventry’s population.
The following table shows the percentage of residents in these wards who are Asian/ Asian British, Black / African/ Caribbean/ Black British and mixed/ multiple ethnic groups:
|
Ward |
Asian/ Asian British |
Black African Caribbean, Black British |
Mixed/ multiple ethnic groups |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Foleshill |
44.8% |
12.2% |
3.6% |
|
Radford |
23.2% |
9.3% |
3.6% |
|
Longford |
17.7% |
9.3% |
4.2% |
|
Sherbourne |
9.4% |
6.9% |
3.1% |
|
Upper Stoke |
21.7% |
10% |
3.4% |
|
Lower Stoke |
17.3% |
13% |
3.7% |
Given the large proportion of Coventry’s population that is ranked in the highest CRVA risk category, around 14,735 residents across the six named most vulnerable wards are above the age of 65 and likely to be more vulnerable to the effects of climate risks. There is a high likelihood that a greater number are at risk in the future.